EP 1130-2-500
27 Dec 96
Table F-3: Base Condition Life-cycle Costs (Standard Errors in Parenthesis)
Unit 1
Unit 2
Reliability Cost
Turbine
Turbine
Expected Present value of
748,500
346,900
767,100
573,800
Life-cycle Repair Costs
(16,119)
(7,241)
(15,876)
(8,728)
Expected Present value of
Life-cycle Opportunity
553,800
Costs
(17,180)
Expected Present value of
1,210,156
Life-cycle O&M Costs
(454)
Total Life-cycle Costs
4,200,256
(30,590)
Values in dollars.
b. As was noted above, the number of possible life-cycles is very large. To reasonably
represent the distribution of possible life-cycle reliability costs, multiple life-cycles must be
simulated. The number of life-cycles required depends on the complexity of the risks being
modeled. The primary approach to deciding the required number of life-cycles to simulate is to
increase the number of life-cycles until the statistic of interest (the mean of life-cycle costs), is
stable. This statistic should asymptotically approach the "true" mean as the number life-cycles
increase. Figure F-4 shows the running average of the base condition calculated total reliability
costs. Table F-3 shows the results from 5000 life-cycles.
F-5
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