EP 1110-2-9
31 Jul 94
F-5. Develop Models for Detailed Study
patterns that appear plausible but have not been observed
historically. Derivation of such events would employ a
This phase of the analysis involves the setting up, cali-
runoff model. (See Appendix D for generic HEMP guid-
brating, and testing of computer models that are to be
ance.)
used in the analysis. An important part of this effort also
F-4. Preliminary Analysis
is the processing of basic data that are needed for the
model simulations. The following outline assumes that a
reservoir simulation model with a monthly time-step (e.g.,
Prior to extensive analysis with hydrologic models (or in
HEC-5) is to be employed, for analysis of seasonal or
place of, for small-scale studies) it may be desirable to
multi-year reservoir operations. An additional potential
perform manual, short-cut water conservation analyses.
evaluation preliminary to HEC-5 is the use of HEC-PRM,
These include procedures such as (1) mass-curve analysis
a "prescriptive" network-flow model which is used to
for identifying critical periods and estimating firm yields;
investigate relative values of alternative operating objec-
(2) limited scope sequential accounting using a spread-
tives and strategies in a reservoir system. Also, for flood
sheet or DSSMATH; and (3) low-flow frequency or flow-
control evaluations a precipitation-runoff model coupled
duration analysis.
with a short-term reservoir system and basin routing
model might be needed. This might be HEC-1 and
a. Obtain references and consultation on use of meth-
HEC-5, the North Pacific Division (NPD) SSARR Pro-
odology as necessary.
gram (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation), or
the Southwest Division (SWD) Reservoir Simulation and
(1) Search literature as necessary.
Routing Program.
(2) Consult with HEC and others.
a. Derivation of prescriptive model: HEC-PRM
(optional). A prescriptive model can be used in multiple-
(3) Decide on methodology to use.
purpose reservoir systems to help define the most desired
operation, given relative economic values (or penalties)
b. Obtain or construct spreadsheet, computer pro-
assigned to operating constraints and objectives.
grams, or other computational procedures.
(1) Consult with HEC and/or other users of this
(1) Obtain or develop computer code.
model.
(2) Test program/spreadsheet.
(2) Obtain program; develop understanding of its
application, requirements, end products.
(3) Develop display routines.
(3) Decide on use of program and scope of effort.
c. Prepare data input for analysis procedure. (See
Paragraph F-3.)
(4) Formulate basic model structure to represent
reservoir system. Decide upon location of reservoirs,
d. Obtain project demands, requirements.
nodes.
(1) Analyze requirements for validity.
(5) Define penalty functions at nodes and reservoirs.
(2) Prepare input for program being used.
(a) Coordinate with economics personnel for penalty
function derivation.
e. Perform analysis with nominated alternatives to be
considered.
(b) Obtain indicators of economic impact versus
flow or stage: flood damage, power values, recreation,
(1) Verify technique on current data, if possible.
instream flow (fishery, water quality), navigation, irriga-
tion, and municipal and industrial.
(2) Execute technique with each alternative.
(c) Plot penalty functions and input into model.
f.
Display results, document as necessary.
F-3
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